WA Market Update – 20/09/2019

We have emphasised the importance of a soft spring all season and unfortunately this week has been another one of dry and warm conditions across WA cropping regions. Grain production in the northern and eastern areas have been severely impacted by the lack of moisture and any rain from here on in is unlikely to reverse the yield losses that have been inflicted. Thankfully, this isn’t the case in the southern zones which are managing to hold on well and basis a rainfall event in the next fortnight, should have the potential to yield above average crops.

ABARE released its September crop report last week and they are expecting to see significant production declines across all grain producing states. Here in WA they believe the poor start to the season and lack of moisture at the back end of the year has caused the yield potential to decline sharply. They are estimating wheat production will now be around 8MMT, barley around 4MMT and canola to sit about 1MMT. These figures could be a little bullish if the warm and dry conditions continue and some analysts have the wheat crop in the mid to low 7MMT’s already.

Once again, the poor weather conditions are having a positive influence on markets, creating a sea of green across all commodities this week. Although we are overpriced to export destinations, domestic consumer demand is supporting our grain values locally. All wheat bids were slightly higher with APW ending up $2/MT to be $330/MT FIS in the Kwinana port zone. Barley too was well supported as bids continue their steady rise, up $5/MT for the week. Canola jumped $10/MT this week to $632/MT FIS Kwinana but there are very few growers with the confidence to take advantage of these prices. Next season’s wheat has once again pushed up to that magical $300/MT FIS value in Kwinana.